Journal
“Trade Liberalisation, the Propensity to Import and Growth in Latin America” (2006),co-author A.P. Thirlwall, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 29(1): 41-66.
Abstract/Resumen
Abstract
This paper applies the balance of payments constrained growth model to seventeen countries of Latin America over the period 1977-2002. The crucial parameter to estimate is the income elasticity of demand for imports which is done for Latin America as a whole, as well as for individual countries. As well as estimating over the whole period, the technique of rolling regressions is also used to test whether a trend increase can be discerned as a result of trade liberalisation. A trend increase is found for Latin America as a whole and for some individual countries, and the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate is a good predictor of growth performance in nine of the seventeen countries. There is no evidence that the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate has increased in Latin America as a result of trade liberalisation.
Key words/Palabras clave
Latin America, Trade Liberalisation, Growth, Balance of Payments